A number of interesting situations presented themselves this week: St. Louis went with a three headed backfield after Tre Mason‘s breakout week; Jonas Gray emerged as the ploughshare in New England; and a couple of rookie receivers saw a ton of looks. What does it all mean? We break that down in our NFL Touches and Targets Week 8 Review.
Remember: we’re using ProFootballFocus’ ‘thrown at’ data which takes a more reasonable assessment of balls thrown in a receiver’s direction, so, you may notice some slight discrepancy from box scores.
Week 8 Touches and Targets: New England Patriots
Are we seeing a transition at receiver for New England? (Photo: Darren McCollester/Getty Images North America).
Shane Vereen started against Chicago, but ceded most of the work to 2012 undrafted free agent Jonas Gray, who was asked to run hard up the middle and keep the clock moving after New England built an early lead. That type of one cut power running suits a back of Gray’s skill set and should be a feature of their run game the rest of the way, particularly in games where New England has a lead. All told, Vereen had five carries for 22 yards and made three receptions on five targets which is only a hair less touches than you expected from him when you acquired his services. Gray, meanwhile, played four fewer snaps (29) and carried the ball 17 times for 86 yards. Again, there is weekly FLEX value here as long as the carries are in place. One game in which they may not be: this coming weekend against Denver, who have faced an average of just 17.23 rushing attempts from backs this season. Offering very little in the pass game, Gray could struggle to find work before heading into the bye.
The pass catchers in New England were all perfect. The end. Want more analysis? Let’s start with the only one who wasn’t (aside from Vereen): Julian Edelman. Edelman saw just four targets from Tom Brady, easily his lowest total of the season and that they came in a game where Brandon LaFell went 11/11/124 with a nine yard score is no coincidence. The free agent acquisition, via Carolina, has been involved in the Patriots offense from the start (six targets in Week 1) but didn’t record his first catch until Week 3. He’s coming on in recent weeks though, with two 98+ yard games and a solid 5/4/55 line in between, scoring three touchdowns in his last three outings. With 67 targets through 8 games, LaFell remains near his 154 target pace from a season ago, but this offense isn’t designed to force the ball to him that often underneath and it looks like they may no longer have to, due to the emergence of LaFell and the return to good health of Rob Gronkowski whose 9/9/149/3 outing is simply not done justice by the numbers on the screen. At the moment, I have LaFell and Edelman ranked neck and neck in terms of rest of season value and am ready to move the first year Patriot ahead of the former QB if he continues to see consistent targets over the next few weeks.
Week 8 Touches and Targets: San Diego Chargers
Branden Oliver continued his dominance of the San Diego backfield distribution, though with Ryan Mathews potentially back in Week 9 that is about to end. Oliver has ran well enough to earn a role the rest of the way, but as long as Mathews stays healthy he should be the most heavily used back in the rotation moving forward. This week, Oliver didn’t offer much which speaks more to Denver’s defense than anything else. He delivered a healthy PPR line, thanks to seven receptions on eight targets for 27 yards but his 13-36 rushing line is consistent with Denver’s handling of opposing backs all season. In part because of their offensive prowess, and in part because they have a dominant front seven, no one is running on the Broncos. They are averaging 16.88 rushing attempts from RBs against per game, meaning that any back they face (particularly those who rely on volume more than efficiency) is a risky fantasy play moving forward.
Keenan Allen was the most targeted Charger in this one by a wide margin, with 13 looks producing nine receptions and 73 yards with a score, continuing his string of strong performances in the mile high city. With 63 targets through eight games, Allen hasn’t really been hurting for looks this season, just end zone opportunities. Hopefully, this week’s game is a sign that that may change – but, with Antonio Gates continuing his dominant season I wouldn’t count on that. Gates’ 8/5/54 line produced two more touchdowns this week. Malcom Floyd (7) was the next most targeted Charger ahead of Eddie Royal (3) and Ladarius Green (1).
Week 8 Touches and Targets: Denver Broncos
Ronnie Hillman had his third straight solid game since taking over for Montee Ball, notching 109 yards on 20 carries and catching three of four targets for 29 more. With 23 touches in an offense this productive, Hillman is locked in as a weekly RB1/2 starter, though Montee Ball’s return may change the distribution of carries to a degree (I, like most, am fully expecting Hillman to remain the starting RB, mind you). Of course, Hillman’s day wasn’t as big as it could have been as Juwan Thompson vultured two TDs as the upback as part of a 7-24 outing.
Emmanuel Sanders was awesome (9/9/105/3TD) but you knew that already. Demaryius Thomas produced his fourth straight 100 yard game (12/8/105) but you knew that too. What you may have missed: Julius Thomas is off his historic TD pace and produced just a 5/2/23 line against San Diego, while Wes Welker was targeted twice and gave owners a measly five yards. I’m not the least bit troubled by Thomas’ outing, but Welker’s line is indicative of a larger trend. While he scored last week, giving owners 11 standard league points, it disguised the fact that Welker was targeted just thrice. That followed one look in Week 6, after opening his 2014 season with nine in Weeks 3 and 5. That brings his five game total to 24, or 4.8/game. That number won’t produce fantasy glory all too often, even in Denver, and as such Welker is becoming a spot-start as opposed to a weekly WR3.
Week 8 Touches and Targets: Indianapolis Colts
With Trent Richardson active but unused, the Colts pretty much abandoned the run game in a contest against the Steelers that saw the two quarterbacks combine for 922 passing yards. Interestingly, even without Richardson in the lineup, Ahmad Bradshaw saw just 13 touches (while playing over 2/3rds of the teams snaps). Still, his efficiency on those 13 touches continues to be through the roof. With 87 total yards and a score (this time on the ground, as opposed to through the air) Bradshaw continues to produce RB1 numbers. Boom Herron barely handled the ball, but you can expect a return to the near even split in snaps we are accustomed to when Richardson is back in action.
Andrew Luck threw a whole lot of passes, and Reggie Wayne was out – two things to consider when assessing Donte Moncrief’s 10 targets (12 by the box score). Still, it became apparent as the game moved on that Moncrief was a preferred target to Hakeem Nicks, who started out heavily involved and produced nothing – worse than nothing, in fact, looking lazy in pursuit of passes thrown his way and slipping on what would be an Andrew Luck interception. Things went much better for the offense as a whole when Luck turned his attention to Moncrief. The rookie had a healthy five targets in the first half, but, it should be noted that Nicks was a big part of the offense early on, drawing four looks in the opening 30 minutes and just one in the final. So again, Moncrief appears to be a logical choice to move ahead of Nicks on the depth chart (though Nicks out-snapped him 61-41 this week), but TY Hilton and his eight targets (6/155/TD; three straight 100 yard games, and five straight over 90) and Reggie Wayne (10 targets per game) are in front of him so I wouldn’t expect his 10/7/113 line to be a regular occurrence. Should Wayne miss this week, though, he is a very reasonable spot start.
Listen to our breakdown of Nicks/Moncrief and the rookie’s ‘direct message’ in our Week 8 NFL Review below (13 minute mark).
Week 8 Touches and Targets: Tennessee Titans
Good news Bishop Sankey owners: Shonn Greene, despite starting, played just two snaps and netted one carry making Sankey the clear primary ball carrier in Tennessee. Bad news, Sankey owners: despite dominating the workload he picked up just nine carries and 11 touches as part of yet another Tennessee loss. This team is going to spend a lot of the season trailing, unless Mettenberger (who looked much worse than his final stat line suggests) can turn it around quickly. As such, Sankey is in line for a lot of 12-14 touch performances even if he is the only back involved.
In Mettenberger’s first start, he heavily involved Justin Hunter to the tune of ten targets, four receptions and a garbage time score. Those targets went for just a 3.1 YPA average though, and the pair couldn’t quite seem to connect. If the targets keep coming, though, Hunter is a high ceiling play every week. His 10 looks were double those of Kendall Wright who was the third most targeted Titan behind Delanie Walker (7/4/37/TD).
Week 8 Touches and Targets: Houston Texans
In a game that saw the Houston Texans run more than 80 plays on offense, Alfred Blue found himself 14 carries (15 touches) and produced 64 total yards. Nice enough, but, the philosopher in front of him; Arian Foster, had 173 and three scores on 24 opportunities. Foster was dominant, and has been strong all season – a big reason why Houston will hang around the outskirts of playoff contention is that his abilities running the ball keep Ryan Fitzpatrick from having to do too much.
What Fitzpatrick did do in the passing game went through DeAndre Hopkins and Andre Johnson as expected, with the pair netting 11 and 12 targets respectively. Hopkins, and his 95 receiving yards on five catches, was the more productive receiver though and that has been the case more than once this year. In fact, his 15.8 YPR handily trumps the 12.0 delivered by the veteran. No other receiver saw more than three targets (Damaris Johnson). This week, the Texans draw the Eagles, a matchup that has been susceptible to speedy receivers all season – as demonstrated by John Brown this past weekend.
Week 8 Touches and Targets: Buffalo Bills
In the wake of injuries to C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson, there was a lot of talk about the Buffalo backfield heading into the week. Our questions around relative workload were solved, with Anthony Dixon getting the bulk of the work this week (as expected, given that Bryce Brown hadn’t been active yet this season). Dixon carried the ball 22 times for 44 yards, with Brown picking up 15 on seven (and whiffing on two pass targets). Not really good results. Buffalo is off this week and faces a tough slate coming back, with Jackson returning to the lineup eventually. Dixon is worth an add, and even Brown who still seems to have better long term upside, but these aren’t exciting plays right now.
With a few big plays on offense and the ineptitude of their opponent, the Bills didn’t ask Kyle Orton to throw the ball too often this week. When he did, it was the Sammy Watkins show. By now you’ve seen Watkins’ celebration fail, but, you also noted that he was consistently behind the Jets’ secondary and dominated the day. His five targets were down considerably from his average with Kyle Orton but given that Orton only threw 17 balls, the five looks bestowed upon Watkins represent a significant proportion and underscore that he is fully entrenched as the focal point of their offense moving forward.
Week 8 Touches and Targets: Baltimore Ravens
With Bernard Pierce a healthy scratch, Lorenzo Taliaferro played the complimentary role to Justin Forsett this week, though Forsett saw a significant proportion of the snaps (70%) to just 17 plays for Taliaferro. He scored two from short yardage, and had a nice game catching passes, but with just nine touches on the day he will be a tough player to trust. Forsett, meanwhile, carried 17 times for 68 yards and added three receptions on four targets for a solid 20 touch week.
Steve Smith had another huge fantasy day wiped off the board by a (weak, but legitimate) offensive pass interference call. Without it, he failed to catch 50% of his targets and didn’t deliver much (8/3/35) but don’t treat the poor output as a sign of lack of use. Meanwhile, the other Smith (Torrey) cooled off after a few strong weeks in a row, targeted just twice and catching nothing. Kamar Aiken, meanwhile, had six ‘that helps no one’ looks. Crockett Gillmore, much hyped sleeper, spent most of the game as a blocker with Owen Daniels out and saw just two targets, catching them both.
Week 8 Touches and Targets: Pittsburgh Steelers
Le’Veon Bell was his same outstanding self again this week, producing as both a rusher and a receiver (24-92, 7/6/56) but he was held out of the endzone yet again. Despite huge total yardage numbers, Bell is averaging less than .5 fantasy points per touch this season because he has only two touchdowns… his 15 red zone rushing attempts trail 16 other RBs and that has put a bit of a cap on his value. Nothing actionable here, just an opportunity for Bell owners to note that someone is sharing their disappointment.
Antonio Brown: awesome. NFL target leader (84). Touchdown machine. All you need to know there (12/10/133/2TD). Behind him though, interesting machinations are afoot. After seeing his first action of the season in Week 7, and producing strong results, Martavis Bryant was active and involved again for Pittsburgh on their monster passing day. He played equivalent snaps to Markus Wheaton (33 vs. 34) but drew two more targets (7-5). Both were productive, but I think we just witnessed Bryant becoming the number two receiver – at least in terms of anticipated weekly targets, if not starting on the outside – in Pittsburgh. Wheaton has not been overwhelmingly productive this season, falling under 60 yards receiving yet again this week (5/5/56) and while he is agile in open space, he’s spent a lot of time running laterally. Bryant, meanwhile, has done a nice job getting up the field and at 6’4” with an excellent vertical he is a strong red zone target for Big Ben – he scored on both of his red zone targets last week, from five and two yards. They won’t all be 500 yard games, but Bryant has earned a share of the offense and is a must add in all leagues.
I elaborate on Bryant’s value in our Week 8 NFL Broadcast below (at roughly 8:15).
Week 8 Touches and Targets: Cincinnati Bengals
Giovani Bernard’s 131 touches through seven games are well over half of last year’s total, and I’m starting to wonder if he is cut out for the workload (actually, I’ve been wondering that for some time and am on record saying as much… but… are we now seeing it on the field?). Bernard found the endzone and produced a solid-not-spectacular fantasy day but he also posted his fifth game in seven tries with a YPC under 4. Jeremy Hill (10-25) didn’t do much in a touch matchup either, but, you should note that this week’s workload distribution was 18-14 in favour of Bernard and that near even split may become a hallmark of the offense in the second half. AJ Green’s return should free up room for both of them to run, and create more scoring opportunities for the offense as a whole, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the team try to settle Bernard in as a 14-16 touch guy vs. a 20 touch workhorse.
At receiver, A.J. Green promises we won’t have to pay mind to Brandon Tate (2/2/30) in fantasy circles much longer, but Mr. DoItAll Mohamed Sanu makes no such statements about himself. Sanu carried twice, effectively, for 27 yards and added five catches on nine targets for 125 yards. His stat lines were a bit of a mixed bag during Green’s absence, but he was productive enough to suggest he’ll fill the WR2 role quite nicely with Adriel Jeremiah back in the lineup and drawing top coverage from opponents. Think of Sanu as a WR3.
Week 8 Touches and Targets: Jacksonville Jaguars
Credit Denard Robinson for putting together back to back solid weeks. I didn’t think he could do it – not on talent, but on opportunity. Jacksonville is still projected to trail a fair bit this season, but just as they did against Miami this week, the defense is actually good enough to keep them in some games so you may see Robinson actually get four quarters worth of rushing opportunities on occasion. This week, his 18 carries were split 11/7 between halves, and that will most likely be the case more often than not but a 19 touch workload is nothing to shake a stick at. 118 total yards isn’t either. Toby Gerhart had four plodding (2.5 YPC) carries in his return and added a reception while Jordan Todman had four touches as well, but this game confirms the backfield as belonging to Robinson.
The pass game belongs to Mr. Robinson, too. First name Allen. The still largely unowned receiver finished with double digit targets, giving him 53 since Week 3 when the team committed to him as the starter. That type of volume often produces results, and with two scores in the last two weeks he is now getting touchdowns to go with the receptions/yards. Based on volume alone, you could do a lot worse than Robinson who is stretching the field for Blake Bortles’ strong arm. Cecil Shorts had seven looks as well, and is another heavily targeted option, though his are more of the middle of the field ‘sit-down’ variety and thus hold lesser value. Allen Hurns (4/3/49) and Marqise Lee (2/1/9) aren’t seeing enough work to warrant your attention.
Week 8 Touches and Targets: New York Jets
Chris Johnson has already articulated his predicament to you as below:
I asked RB Chris Johnson about the Jets quarterback situation; “I don’t even be in the game, so I don’t know.” #Jets #NFL
— Jane McManus (@janesports) October 26, 2014
And its true, of course. Johnson played just 16 snaps this week and was given three carries (for seven yards) that finished behind both Bilal Powell (4-28) and Chris Ivory (13-43, two scores) and he also had fewer rushing attempts than Percy Harvin. Already seeing minimal work, the arrival of Harvin and any role he’ll have rushing the ball comes at Johnson’s expense leaving him with absolutely zero value… though, you’d already figured that out for yourself.
On the note of Harvin, he saw four carries and made three receptions, totalling 50 yards. Clearly, though, he is intended as a significant part of the Jets’ offense, drawing nine targets from the Smith-Vick Frankenstein/Turnover machine. Eric Decker saw ten, catching seven balls, but for just 40 yards while Jace Amaro went 5/5. With Vick under Center, I think everyone’s fantasy value comes up a degree but before I think about making use of any Jets I’d like to see how it all plays out in Harvin’s second week/Vick’s full week. At that point, we should have a better indication of how the offense will look moving forward.
Week 8 Touches and Targets: Kansas City Chiefs
Knile Davis actually out carried Jamaal Charles this week, but make no mistake: his contributions were solely in run out the clock mode. Davis is no threat to Charles’ weekly workload, and he had just one carry in the first half. Playing 22 snaps, Davis carried 16 times and received one pass target, tasked with milking the clock and nothing more. Charles, meanwhile, put the offense on his back with 17 touches, 117 total yards and two scores.
Dwane Bowe received six targets. Virtually everything else went to backs and Tight Ends, with Travis Kelce’s 5/4/45 line meriting a note. Bowe caught every pass thrown his way for a solid 64 yards and gets the New York Jets this week – a team that has allowed the most passing touchdowns in the league to date. Is Bowe the type of guy to take it over the top and torch New York’s led footed secondary? No, he’s not. But, in a matchup this generous to WRs I can get behind Bowe as he is the only receiver this offense ever uses. For what it’s worth, A.J. Jenkins played 43 snaps and was not targeted.
Week 8 Touches and Targets: Cleveland Browns
Last week I observed that the Browns ran the ball poorly in the first game since Alex Mack’s injury. This week, the efficiency numbers of each back involved got worse. Again, Ben Tate lost one yard when running on either side of Center and the run game as a whole looked awful, failing to open up any room to run and often leaving Tate (and Co.) exposed behind the line/hit before they even had a chance to find a ole to run through. As far as the distribution goes, it seems that Terrance West is back ahead of Isaiah Crowell as #2 after seven carries for 11 yards vs. one for one, though the distribution tilted slightly in Crowell’s favor last week. At any rate, I want nothing to do with this backfield – even Tate, who I think is a good rusher – until I see the offensive line figure it out.
Jordan Cameron is destined to miss time after taking a brutal hit in the middle of the field. Jim Dray and Gary Barnidge got a few looks after his departure, but, no thanks. Andrew Hawkins picked up some of the slack though, with an 8/7/88 outing while hte rest of the pass game enjoyed two or three targets apiece (Taylor Gabriel: 3/2/60). Hawkins scored his first TD this week, and has back to back 10+ point games. Averaging 7.4 targets per game, he is an appetizing bye week option, though the floor remains fairly low.
Week 8 Touches and Targets: Miami Dolphins
Lamar Miller finished just under 100 total yards, but had another efficient day going 14-78 on the ground and adding three receptions for 21 yards (on three targets). Daniel Thomas had some change of pace work with six touches of his own, but, the 6-10 range will be his bailiwick this season while Miller will get enough work to post RB2 lines more often than not. Damien Williams was inactive this week.
Mike Wallace continued to lead the team in targets, but with Miami unable to sustain any drives offensively the six looks don’t really pop off the chart at you. Interestingly, Bill Lazor dialled up two deep passes to Wallace in a row this week after being one of the more conservative play callers in recent weeks. Wallace caught one of those deep balls for 50 yards, while adding a nine yard reception. Brian Hartline was ahead of Jarvis Landry in targets for the first time in three weeks, though he made just one catch on his four looks while Landry went 3/3 and added a carry. Maybe Landry doesn’t hold much long term value in standard leagues, but I would assess it as more than Hartline’s at this point, anyhow. Charles Clay had just two targets after a strong Week 7.
Week 8 Touches and Targets: Oakland Raiders
The Raiders coaching staff called for more work for Maurice Jones-Drew this week and through the early going he split carries evenly with Darren McFadden. Then, someone realized that Jones-Drew doesn’t have it any more, something that should have been evident long before the midway point of Week 8. All told, he finished with six carries for eight yards while Darren McFadden had his most efficient game yet, going 12-59 and adding four catches on five targets. McFadden doesn’t really have it anymore either, but, as long as they play it as they should in Oakland he’ll see 14-18 chances every week and that should be enough for FLEX worthy output.
James Jones led the Raiders with 11 targets this week. Kenbrell Thompkins surprisingly was the next man in line, tied with Mychal Rivera with eight looks apiece. Nevertheless, Andre Holmes had the biggest fantasy day thanks to a YPR number above 13 and a garbage time touchdown… both of which are staples of his game. In every game since Holmes’ 12 target outburst overseas, Jones has been the more targeted receiver but Holmes’ scoring touch and big play ability make him the receiver to use. Volume in the pass game from a Raiders team destined for lingering conversations around 0-16 make that a realistic consideration, as well.
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