In just one 1pm contest, Fantasy Football lost two starters at their respective positions for potentially significant time. Beyond that, Week 9 saw its typical share of surprise production coupled with underwhelming performances. Both leave plenty of questions: what is Jarvis Landry‘s role in a resurgent Miami offense? Is Ben Tate losing all fantasy value? We look at this questions and more in our NFL Week 9 Review.
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NFL Week 9 Review
So… Mark Sanchez happened today. Both the real world and fantasy results were surprisingly good. (Photo: Tony Gutierrez/
Associated Press).
- There isn’t massive injury news across the league stemming from Week 9, though, the news of great significance comes from both sides of the Houston Texans/Philadelphia Eagles game. With Arian Foster, we’re unlikely to know the results of his MRI immediately, but at a minimum we should be looking at a multi week injury (with Houston on bye next week, Foster will still almost assuredly miss games). That puts Alfred Blue squarely on your radar as a must add… as a Foster owner, hopefully you had him handcuffed anyhow. Foster was his typically productive self before the injury, and had netted 17 touches through 40 minutes of action. This offense is designed to keep Ryan Fitzpatrick from over exposing himself, and will continue to rely on the run even with Foster sidelined. It should be noted that coming out of the team’s bye week, it could be Ryan Mallet’s mistakes they are trying to minimize and not those of the bearded incumbent. Blue did nothing in relief this week, and is averaging just 3.6 YPC in his rookie year… but, he’ll see enough volume to warrant RB2 consideration as long as Foster is out. Behind him, Jonathan Grimes is a player to note, though he has seen very little action this year.
- On the other side, Mark Sanchez relieved Nick Foles who suffered a broken clavicle and may well miss the rest of the regular season. Sanchez had a couple of turnovers and missed a few throws, but he also kept the offense moving. In fact, while never described as a mobile QB there was a notable difference in athleticism between Sanchez and Foles which seemed to help the run game to a degree. LeSean McCoy had a couple of nice runs on read option/delayed handoff plays which did not seem to be as successful with Foles under Center this season. As for the rest of the offense, I wouldn’t expect much of a change in production and certainly the scheme didn’t seem to be affected with Foles’ ouster. If I’m in trouble at QB – say, even, a Colin Kaepernick owner – I’m looking to add Sanchez. He’ll have plenty of opportunities to post fake points in Chip Kelly’s offense. Will he make a few mistakes? History suggests he absolutely will, but, he’ll do so while notching some quality numbers too. Again, I’m not concerned about anyone in the Eagles’ offense in the wake of this change either. Sanchez’ first drive wound up with a score and was statistically quite impressive. The TD to Jordan Matthews was a great touch throw to the receiver in stride, and he opened the drive with a 52 yard completion to Jeremy Maclin, though, if it was thrown in front of the receiver it was another long score. On that note, Maclin had a long one with Foles in the game. How do you single him, Houston Texans? He scored his 3rd TD over 50 yards on the season in the first quarter on a play in which safety help existed over the top but DJ Swearinger bit on the underneath route leaving Maclin to toast the corner en route to an easy score.
- When the game was being contested, Michael Vick did very little… throwing for a very minimal YPA/average depth of target, presumably in an attempt to avoid turnovers (which he was able to do, so, he holds that over Geno Smith). In the 4th quarter, Vick and his teammates piled up some garbage time stats. You’ll take that from a fantasy perspective… along with the fact that he (and Matt Simms who briefly relieved him) targeted Eric Decker and Percy Harvin a combined 25 times. Assuming that the offense continues to move the ball through the receivers you expect it to, there could be some fantasy utility to this group yet. That wasn’t the case in the run game this week, mind you, where Chris Johnson had 11 carries to Chris Ivory’s eight.
- Dwayne Bowe saw a healthy ten targets from Alex Smith and made six catches (for 55 yards). He didn’t have the kind of banner day that I had hoped for against the poor Jets secondary, but, that he saw double the targets of any other Chief and has managed to produce 17 receptions over the last three weeks is noteworthy. He’s a weekly low upside play, mind you.
- Good news for those who were following the Rams backfield: the team was definitive this week, giving rookie Tre Mason a full workload (19 carries, one reception) and while his 19-65 rushing line sounds unimpressive, Mason made some great cuts on the inside, often finding yards that weren’t there behind a battered Rams offensive line. Of course, the last time they did this Zac Stacy came back to lead the team in touches the following week, so, Mason is no lock for starting workload in Week 10. In the pass game, Kenny Britt scored but only saw three targets and spent a portion of the game on the sidelines… elsewhere, with Brian Quick hurt Austin Davis completed passes to eight different receivers (targeting 10)… he’ll continue to spread the ball around leaving none of them worth looking at. With nine different pass catchers and 11 different players targeted, Oakland is doing a fine job of turning a high volume passing attack into a that helps no one situation as well (unless you started Mychal Rivera 11/8/38/2).
- I spent time last week on a variety of podcasts, and in two in depth articles, discussing Julian Edelman’s anticipated relative production with the emergence of Brandon LaFell… and of course, this week Edelman had a huge game for his owners. Of interest, though, the day was set up for him to succeed. Significant winds kept Tom Brady looking underneath, particularly in the first half, which favoured his short-range receiver. I’m not big into over reacting to the weather, but this is a tidbit to file away. LaFell, meanwhile, had a few drops but was again a productive receiver for Brady in clutch situations. He finished with a team leading 13 targets, catching six balls and finding the endzone. Again, with that volume anticipated to continue, I see LaFell as a useful WR3 weekly.
- Wes Welker saw a healthy seven targets, but that came as 57 passes thrown by Peyton Manning (110 went in the air through the game… so again, wind… not a factor). Those seven targets made him the fourth busiest pass catcher on the day, and he made just three receptions, losing some time to a back injury after a vicious hit on Manning’s second interception. As good as the Denver offense is, they can’t support four useful pass receivers and Welker is destined to be that option every week. He’s worth a roster spot, but, there are many more attractive starting options. Particularly if you subscribe to the perspective that Welker is not seeing those targets on a regular basis because he has lost a step in 2014.
- We could start just about anywhere with dissecting how poorly the San Diego offense played against Miami, and the entire unit was a monstrosity… but, that Branden Oliver averaged just 1.5 yards per carry on 13 totes after going 13-36 a week ago suggests that Ryan Mathews will be charged with taking the reins of the offense yet again when he returns in Week 11. Good news for anyone holding on Mathews. Bad news for Oliver owners.
- Jarvis Landry scored a touchdown, which means he’s finally landed on your fantasy radar. The thing is though, Landry isn’t necessarily a one week wonder. He’d had 16 targets over the previous three weeks coming in and playing time data suggests that he has moved ahead of Brian Hartline in the team’s pecking order, if not in terms of overall snaps played.
- Early on against the Vikings, I said “there goes Robert Griffin again” in a derogatory manner, on what was a sure sack. Instead, Griffin evaded not just one, but two tackles for loss and found Roy Helu for a long gain. His mobility continues to be both tantalizing and aggravating. Two plays later Griffin was crumpled under the pile. He managed to finish the game without injury, and moved the offense fairly well, but had an up and down day in his return to action. He’d have had a better fantasy day as well, if not for Alfred Morris’ two rushing touchdowns. The 4.8 yards per carry Morris averaged were higher than all but one of his games with Kirk Cousins (and Colt McCoy) under Center, which shouldn’t be a surprise given the boost provided by Griffin’s threat to run status. What Griffin did for Morris he failed to do for Pierre Garcon, mind you (5/3/15). That aside, it was a decent game all told for Griffin (in a loss) and gives investors reason to be hopeful as the team heads into its bye.
- Cordarrelle Patterson disappointed yet again, with just nine yards receiving against an undermanned Washington secondary. That said, he was targeted deep on numerous occasions and was running free more than once as part of a seven target outing. If he and QB Teddy Bridgewater were able to hook up on any of them, it would have been a much more productive day – including an early throw on which Patterson had several steps on the nearest defender and simply seemed to lose the ball.
- After a rough week of police reports and practice fighting, Joseph Randle appears to have moved behind Lance Dunbar as DeMarco Murray’s backup/handcuff. Murray was held under 100 yards for the first time, though with a 4.2 YPC average it wasn’t on the back. The good news: Dallas is preparing to see Tony Romo back under Center which should help everyone.
- John Brown’s 2/2, 10 day is a reminder as to why it’s hard to trust a third target on his own team. It’s also a reminder that paying for last week’s stats is poor strategy.
- Jeremy Hill was able to break away on his 60 yard score, but, make no mistake his game isn’t one of speed. Hill was able to power his day to a nice fantasy outing rushing 23 times for 94 yards and a score outside of that 60 yard gain, but that is more his style than the breakaway run. When Giovani Bernard comes back to the field, though, I think you’ll see more of Hill early in games in an effort to wear down opposing defenses and leave the long burst opportunities to the shiftier sophomore back. Cincinnati faces a short turnaround in Week 10 though, so I would guess that you’ll see Hill in line for another 20+ carries in the week ahead. On the other side, Denard Robinson ran well yet again for Jacksonville and found the endzone this week while averaging 5.5 yards a pop. Toby Gerhart checked in with three carries, but it is clear that Shoelace is running like a starting calibre back and the Jags are willing to treat him as such. With 329 yards rushing over the last three weeks, Robinson is among the top producers at his position during that time frame.
- DeAndre Hopkins had a solid outing against the Eagles, boasting number of strong run after the catch plays. However, the difference this week is that he found the endzone. Hopkins has been quietly great all year, but without scoring his upside has been capped. This week, converting on a seven yard out route from Ryan Fitzpatrick helped make the difference for owners. He won’t do so every week, but is clearly the biggest threat in their passing game right now and should be started as a WR2.
- Marshawn Lynch absolutely willed his way into the endzone on his first quarter TD run (with a little assistance from his Right Guard). Lynch was hit at the line and wrapped up by two defenders, but kept his legs churning and pushed three yards to pay dirt. To give some perspective on how unlikely the score was: the scoreboard operator had already changed the screen to read 2nd down when he pushed forward to cross the line. Lynch hadn’t scored in five weeks coming in, but pushed two balls across the goal line from inside five yards. His overall average wasn’t exciting as Oakland sold out to stop the run (and Russell Wilson couldn’t make them pay through the air for most of the day) but with 21 carries Lynch had enough volume to be productive after a few lighter workload weeks (and that he added five receptions on five targets for 76 yards didn’t hurt a bit). As Seattle adjusts in the wake of the Percy Harvin trade, surely there will be more 20 carry games in his future.
- I’ve spent much of the last three weeks blaming the loss of Alex Mack for Ben Tate’s poor performance, but, with yet another woeful effort at a certain part the back bears the blame. Terrance West didn’t run extremely in his stead, but, a 15-48 effort is a lot more impressive than 10-3. It’s hard to know exactly what the Browns will do at the position moving forward but I wouldn’t view Tate as the clear cut starter to be sure. Tampa Bay is enduring its own confusing backfield situation, but with Charles Sims a late inactive Bobby Rainey dominated the workload… seeing plenty of action in the first half and netting 19 carries and a reception. Doug Martin could be back next week and Sims should be active so anyone who is overly excited by his 121 total yard effort should temper expectations.
NFL Week 9 Review: Injuries
- Nick Foles – discussed above, Foles is officially listed with a 4-6 week timeline but could realistically find himself out for the rest of the regular season. If you need the roster space, I can support letting Foles go at this stage. Further, adding Sanchez is a smart move for anyone without a top-6 QB and you can hold on the rest of the Philadelphia offense.
- Arian Foster – also covered above, Foster has been one of the league’s best backs when on the field but has had a series of soft tissue injuries derail his campaign. It is unclear at this point if he’ll miss significant time, if at all. Alfred Blue is the must-add option, and Jonathan Grimes (who has just seven carries) should be active in any games with Foster out… potentially leading to opportunity down the road, but likely not leading to relevancy.
- Lamar Miller – Miller was lifted late in Miami’s romp over San Diego and is slated for an MRI early this week to determine the severity of his shoulder injury. For his part, Miller says he’s good, and the lopsided score could have something to do with his removal. Damien Williams saw some work today, but recent snap data suggests that Daniel Thomas is Miller’s primary backup.
- Wes Welker – Welker did not return after getting crunched in the back, but, he kept his helmet on on the sidelines and appeared ready to re-enter the game shortly after the injury. I wouldn’t expect him to miss significant time, but as discussed above I’m not convinced he’s fantasy relevant while on the field.
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